Oil at $80 - ??? Truck shortage - Yes

Yes, oil at $80 per barrel is being discussed.  Key factors impacting the recent run up:
  • Iran’s political uncertainty
  • All the world’s economies are doing well (even France grew 2% – double what it has been doing)
  • OPEC seems to be holding the line
 
What is not holding the line is US shale production.  My expectation is that it will keep oil from rising too much – current price $63.86!
 
You know there is a truck shortage – the most discussed cause is the driver shortage. This was brought home by the number of ads for dedicated fleet drivers. According to Will Cotten, who used to run a large fleet before coming to work for us:  “The only way those jobs opened up was if somebody died…and then there was a line out the door wanting that premium run."
 
Commentary from the Wall Street Journal reinforces what this email said several months ago about the Post Office subsidizing parcel costs:  "In 2007, the Postal Service and its regulator determined that, at a minimum, 5.5% of the agency’s fixed costs must be allocated to packages and similar products.  A decade later, around 25% of its revenue comes from packages, but their share of fixed costs has not kept pace.  First-class mail effectively subsidizes the national network, and the packages get a free ride. An April analysis from Citigroup estimates that if costs were fairly allocated, on average parcels would cost $1.46 more to deliver."